Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Monday

ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for January 9th are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

Game Script: There are three games that opened with a total north of 237 points: Bulls-Celtics, Lakers-Nuggets and Magic-Kings. Games with such a total have gone under the projected number 61.1% of the time this season, so who does an underwhelming scoring night favor? So far, the Bulls, Nuggets and Magic hold the edge in their respective games in terms of ATS record when unders cash, with Denver holding the biggest edge (Nuggets are 11-7 ATS when under tickets chase while the Lakers are just 5-11 ATS in those spots).​​

Bucks On Milwaukee: When the Knicks are a small underdog this season (three or fewer points), unders are 6-3, a similar cashing rate to when the Bucks are small favorites (6-4). That gives this game SGP potential when you consider that Milwaukee is 4-1-1 ATS in those six under instances. As far as the total goes, don’t let the recent run of Buck overs fool you … unders are 10-8 in their games with a sub-225-point total (8-13 otherwise).

Pelican Pickups: The Pelicans will be without both Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson due to respective injuries for tonight’s matchup against the Wizards. The New Orleans front office has amassed unique depth at the wing, with the likes of Naji Marshall (93% available in ESPN leagues) capably stepping up when called on. Marshall has posted 47 points and six steals across his last two games and is just $5,500 on DraftKings. Jonas Valanciunas ($6,600) is also a key DFS play given reasonable pricing in a matchup that should see him approach 30 minutes of exposure.

Bank on Brogdon: The Celtics’ investment in more backcourt depth is paying off, as they can turn to Malcolm Brogdon to orchestrate offense when needed. With Marcus Smart listed as doubtful to play against the Bulls in Chicago tonight, Brogdon — a free agent in nearly a third of ESPN leagues — is positioned as a top DFS value and spot starter in redraft leagues.

Getting Ahead: In some competitive fantasy hoops formats it can pay off to be proactive. For instance, adding the Suns’ Duane Washington Jr. (99% available in ESPN leagues) ahead of Tuesday’s tilt with the Warriors. With Chris Paul unlikely to play and Cameron Payne still sidelined, Washington can build on his recent 25-point opus against the Cavaliers as Phoenix’s lone active point guard.

Target Thomas: The Lakers are warming up in the win column thanks in part to the play of Thomas Bryant, as he’s been able to hold down the paint while Anthony Davis recovers from a foot injury. Ahead of tonight’s matchup with Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets, Bryant is somehow still a free agent in two-thirds of leagues despite averaging nearly 22 points and 13 boards over the past week.

— Jim McCormick and Kyle Soppe

Breaking down Monday’s slate

New Orleans Pelicans at Washington Wizards
7 p.m. ET, Capital One Arena, Washington, Washington D.C.

Line: Wizards (-1)
Money line: Wizards (-120), Pelicans (+100)
Total: 227 points
BPI Projected Total: 233.8 points
BPI Win%: Wizards (56.6%)

Questionable: Larry Nance Jr.
Ruled Out: Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Bradley Beal
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Kyle Kuzma over 22.5 points. With Bradley Beal out for Monday’s game, Kuzma will play a major role for the Wizards. The Pelicans allow the fifth-most points per game to small forwards this season and Kuzma has averaged a career-high 21.4 PPG. — Moody

Best bet: Jonas Valanciunas over 26.5 points + rebounds. Valanciunas should continue to play a more important role for the Pelicans with Zion Williamson out. He’s averaged 16.3 PPG and 12.3 RPG over his past four games while the Wizards have given up the second-most PPG to centers this season. — Moody

Best bet: CJ McCollum over 24.5 points. McCollum is off the injury report after sitting Saturday’s game on the second half of a back-to-back. With Williamson and Brandon Ingram still out, McCollum should again be the focal point of the Pelicans’ offense. He has averaged 26.3 PPG over his past 12 games and scored over 24.5 points in eight of those 12 games. –– Snellings

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics
7:30 p.m. ET, TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts

Line: Celtics (-8.5)
Money line: Celtics (-355), Bulls (+278)
Total: 237.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 237.6 points
BPI Win%: Celtics (80.2%)

Questionable: Alex Caruso, Marcus Smart
Ruled Out: Tony Bradley, Javonte Green
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Jayson Tatum over 44.5 points + assists + rebounds. Tatum has averaged 30 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 6 assists against Chicago this season. He faces a Bulls team that ranks 19th in points allowed per 100 possessions and allows the fourth-highest effective field goal percentage to opponents. — Moody

Best bet: Over 241.0. The Lakers have scored 120 or more points in five of their past seven games while five of the Nuggets past six games have exceeded the total. The Lakers also rank second in pace, making it likely that this will be a high-scoring game. — Moody

Best bet: Zach LaVine over 23.5 points. After a shaky start to the season, LaVine has settled in at his usual level for more than a month now. He has averaged 25.7 PPG over his past 18 games, while scoring more than 20 points in 14 of those games. He’s been particularly hot of late, averaging 29 points in his last four while scoring 36 or more in his last two outings. — Snellings

Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, New York

Line: Bucks (-1)
Money line: Bucks (-120), Knicks (+100)
Total: 221 points
BPI Projected Total: 236.1 points
BPI Win%: Knicks (61.6%)

Ruled Out: Khris Middleton, Serge Ibaka, RJ Barrett
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Immanuel Quickley (rostered in 19.4% of ESPN leagues) is once again on the streaming radar with RJ Barrett considered doubtful for Monday’s game. Six consecutive games have seen Quickley score 25 or more fantasy points, including two with 50 or more. — Moody

Best bet: Over 221.0. The over has cashed five times in the Bucks past seven games and eight of the Knicks past ten games. Giannis Antetokounmpo‘s lowest-scoring game of the season coincided with the Bucks’ 29-point home loss to the Hornets on Friday. The Bucks will likely be aggressive in this game as they look to bounce back. — Moody

Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 32.5 points. Antetokounmpo is coming off one of the worst games of his career on Friday, a nine-point, four-rebound performance with zero assists and three turnovers in 22 minutes of a home blowout against the Hornets. He had been carrying a huge load, with Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday missing time over the past few weeks. He had averaged 39.1 PPG over the past eight games before Friday and has now had three days rest since. Monday is a good bounce-back opportunity against a Knicks squad that allowed him to score 37 points just over a month ago. — Snellings

San Antonio Spurs at Memphis Grizzlies
8 p.m. ET, FedExForum, Memphis, Tennessee

Line: Grizzlies (11)
Money line: Grizzlies (-600), Spurs (+430)
Total: 238 points
BPI Projected Total: 240.9 points
BPI Win%: Grizzlies (82.2%)

Questionable: Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl
Ruled Out: Devin Vassell
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Romeo Langford (available in 99.3% of leagues) Langford has moved back into the starting lineup with Devin Vassell out. In the two games since, he’s averaged 14.5 PPG and 4.5 RPG in 30.0 MPG. He’s played at least 28 minutes and averaged 16.4 PPG in his past five starts. — Snellings

Best bet: Tyus Jones (rostered in 9.7% of ESPN leagues) Jones is once again on the streaming radar if Ja Morant is ruled out for Monday’s game. Jones has averaged 17.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 8.1 assists per 40 minutes this season. He should have success against a Spurs team that ranks 30th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Moody

Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets
9 p.m. ET, Ball Arena, Denver, Colorado

Line: Nuggets (-10)
Money line: Nuggets (-440), Lakers (+335)
Total: 241.5 points
BPI Projected Total: 245 points
BPI Win%: Nuggets (81.4%)

Questionable: Russell Westbrook, Troy Brown Jr., LeBron James
Ruled out: Jeff Green
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Best bet: Jamal Murray over 23.5 points + assists. Murray has only averaged 19 points and assists over the past three games but is well-positioned to have more success against a Lakers team that has allowed some very good performances to opposing point guards. Murray has averaged 19 points and 5.7 assists in three games against the Lakers this season. — Moody

Best bet: Lakers +9.5. The Lakers have won five straight games and are quietly creeping up the standings in their division. The Nuggets are as hot as any team in the West, having won eight of their past 10 games, but the last time these teams faced off the Lakers won by 18 points. I can agree with the Nuggets being favored to win, but with the way the Lakers are playing right now I’d take them with almost 10 points against pretty much anyone in the West. — Snellings

Orlando Magic at Sacramento Kings
10 p.m. ET, Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California

Line: Kings (-6.5)
Money line: Kings (-240), Magic (+196)
Total: 237 points
BPI Projected Total: 242.1 points
BPI Win%: Kings (74.2%)

Ruled Out: Bol Bol
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play

Fantasy streamer: Markelle Fultz (available in 65.2% of leagues) Fultz has become one of the best defensive guards in the league, and it adds an element to his all-around game that makes him a starter in most fantasy formats. In his last 12 games, Fultz has averaged 12.5 PPG, 6.3 APG, 5.3 RPG and 2.4 SPG. In his last outing, on Saturday, he turned in a 4×5 game with 16 points, 7 assists, 6 steals and 5 rebounds in 31 minutes. — Snellings

Best bet: Magic +5.5. With how the Kings have played lately, it’s difficult to see Sacramento defeating the Magic by more than 5.5 points. The Kings are 1-4 in their past five games against the spread. In their past four road games against teams with winning records at home, the Magic are 4-0 against the spread. — Moody

Best bet: De’Aaron Fox over 32.5 points + assists. Over the last 12 games, Fox has averaged 27.7 points and 6.9 assists. The Magic ranks 18th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Fox scored 37 points and amassed three assists against Orlando back on November 5th, 2022. — Moody