ACC exploration of adding Stanford and Cal creates more realignment drama
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The realignment wheel will keep spinning for awhile. What started with Colorado’s exit for the Big 12 is going to continue for several more sequences until the full chessboard has been significantly reshaped. The latest possibility: Stanford and Cal to the ACC.
Pete Thamel of ESPN reported on Monday afternoon that the ACC will have exploratory conversations about the possibility of inviting Stanford and Cal. These are just explorations, not negotiations, a distinction we always have to make when discussing realignment news, rumors, and machinations. Any two entities can talk; negotiating is a different and advanced step in a sequence. We’re not yet there with the ACC and the Bay Area schools which are part of the Pac-4.
Nevertheless, this is definitely a significant story we have to keep our eyes on. There are obvious reasons why the ACC would do this, and there are obvious implications for the other conferences involved in realignment. There’s also a lot to say about Stanford, the Mountain West, Oregon State, Washington State, and more.
Here we go:
THE TWEET
ACC THINKS AHEAD
The ACC is thinking ahead here. It knows that Florida State wants out of the conference, and that Clemson might want to move to the SEC. The ACC might not add Stanford and Cal, but it is exploring expansion so that if the conference suffers a few defections in the coming years, it has more chess pieces to play with. That might be a crass and distasteful way to refer to a few prestigious academic institutions, but purely in terms of the political game of realignment, it makes sense to add schools. They represent buffers against hostile moves or unforeseen forces from other conferences or schools.
The Pac-12 didn’t add San Diego State or SMU when it had the chance. Now it’s functionally a dead conference. Adding schools — or at least exploring the addition of schools — contains value. The ACC grasps that. It’s less about making the move for Stanford and Cal, more about giving those schools more to think about and, in turn, giving other involved parties more to consider. This might shake loose some opportunities and lead to a better outcome.
STANFORD CHOICES
Stanford now has more to think about. The Cardinal could join the Mountain West in a merger. They could go independent in football and join the Mountain West in other sports. They could go to the Big Ten. Now, the ACC might be a fresh possibility.
The ACC’s move seems like a very clear attempt to force the Big Ten’s hand. Many people in the college sports industry felt that Stanford and Cal would receive consideration from the Big Ten, but we haven’t seen recent indications that the Big Ten wants to expand beyond 18 schools and invite the Bay Area schools. This ACC exploration will make the Big Ten decide whether it wants to pursue Stanford and Cal. If the Big Ten does want the Bay Area schools, it can’t delay the pursuit much longer.
STANFORD AND CAL TOGETHER
Stanford and Cal are both Bay Area schools. They could therefore be seen as “travel partners” in a new conference, much as UCLA was USC’s travel partner in the Big Ten. Cal could be viewed by the ACC as the travel partner to Stanford. Cal would be the ACC’s equivalent of UCLA. Stanford would be the ACC’s version of USC.
Stanford and Cal are both in the same TV market, but they’re not the same. Stanford’s sports programs are elite across the board, offering much more value to the ACC in football, basketball, baseball, and other college sports. Taking Cal as a package deal to bring aboard Stanford might be worth it to the ACC. The Big Ten seems to think that taking on Cal as a condition of adding Stanford is not worth the trouble. Will this exploratory move by the ACC cause the Big Ten to change its mind on the value of Cal? That’s just one of many questions to consider.
ACADEMICS
Academically, this move is easy to understand. Stanford and Cal would join North Carolina, Virginia, and Duke to create a conference of academic powerhouses. Culturally and academically, this fits.
NOT JUST FOOTBALL
Not every realignment move has to be football-focused. The Big 12 could add Gonzaga and/or UConn. That would be a basketball move.
If the ACC does add Stanford and Cal, it’s not primarily for football. We mentioned how Stanford’s various sports programs would beef up the ACC across the board. If merely having Stanford in the fold puts the ACC in a better position to retain Florida State and prevent schools from leaving, that’s valuable.
ONE PLUS ONE SCENARIO
What do we mean by a “one plus one” scenario? It’s this: What if the Big Ten secretly or privately wants Stanford but doesn’t want Cal? The Big Ten might be hoping that Florida State is so serious about getting out of the ACC grant of rights that it could join the Big Ten. FSU wants the Big Ten, but we don’t know if the Big Ten wants FSU.
The Big Ten might be waiting to see if Florida State can in fact escape the ACC grant of rights. Then it might extend offers to Stanford and Florida State to get to 20 teams. If Florida State can’t escape the ACC GOR, then the Big Ten might not invite Stanford and would then stay at 18.
Here’s the ACC angle in all of this: If the ACC does pursue and ultimately land Stanford, that prevents the Big Ten from executing a Stanford plus Florida State plan, aka, a “one plus one” plan by adding one team from two separate conferences.
ATTITUDE OF GRATITUDE
Part of the ACC’s calculus here is that Stanford and Cal might be so deeply grateful to the ACC for saving them from a life in the Mountain West that the two schools will be very receptive to whatever the ACC wants from them in terms of travel and other considerations. Having grateful (docile, obedient) members as opposed to grumbling members such as Florida State could prove useful for the ACC down the line.
Again, it’s not just about football.
BAY AREA TV MARKET
If the Big Ten collects Stanford and Cal, that means Fox gets the Bay Area TV market. The ACC, under the ESPN-Disney umbrella, might want the Bay Area market for itself. Television sets are certainly part of this.
STANFORD WOMEN’S BASKETBALL
It is obviously very bad for Stanford women’s basketball that the Pac-12 has died. Pac-12 women’s hoops was strong and in position to be stronger, with Utah and Colorado and Washington State all improving in recent years, and with Oregon and Arizona having high-level programs. That has all been busted up, leaving Stanford women’s hoops in a very bad spot.
However: A move to the ACC, while containing significant travel headaches, would put Stanford women’s hoops back in an elite conference. Virginia Tech just made the Final Four. Louisville is a top-10 program for a long time. North Carolina State has been a top-10 program in recent years. North Carolina and Duke are big brand names in women’s college basketball. Miami just made the Elite Eight. Florida State has been a top-20 program for a long time. Landing in the ACC would be so much better for Stanford than being forced to play in the Mountain West. The travel nightmare would be worth it.
MOUNTAIN WEST PROBLEM
The ACC is merely exploring the possibility of having Stanford and Cal in the conference. We’re not at the “invitation extending” stage. Nevertheless, this news of early exploratory talks cannot be viewed with happiness in Mountain West Conference offices.
This news is bad for the Mountain West because Stanford now has two Power Five options potentially on its plate. If the Big Ten says no, the ACC is now the Plan B for Stanford. That Plan B was — for maybe 24 hours — the Mountain West, if not independence.
It was felt going into Monday (August 7) that the Big Ten was clearly Stanford’s best option. The preferred number two option — the Plan B — was less clear. Now it’s clear: It’s the ACC. Stanford will be very disappointed if it doesn’t get into the Big Ten or the ACC.
The Mountain West’s level of desirability for Stanford — which was already low — has now decreased. It does not bode well for the MW’s ability to add Stanford and Cal in a merger with the current MW schools.
OREGON STATE
Oregon State hopes it will go to the Big 12, but if Gonzaga and either UConn or Memphis are the Big 12’s expansion targets, the Beavers are stuck with the Mountain West. If they go to the Mountain West, they would like to have Stanford and Cal along for the ride as travel partners and as familiar schools which would boost the MW’s potential TV value.
Stanford and Cal going to the ACC would likely deal the Beavers another financial hit. OSU really needs to make a pitch to Stanford about a Pac-4 merger with the Mountain West and see what the Cardinal really want — and need — from such an arrangement.
WASHINGTON STATE
Like Oregon State, Washington State needs to see if it can convince Stanford and Cal to pursue a Mountain West path. However, if Stanford goes to the Big Ten, it would be important to see if the Big Ten takes Cal or waits for a possible Florida State defection from the ACC.
If Cal is left behind, Washington State and Oregon State wouldn’t have a best-case scenario — none of this is good for WSU or OSU — but they would have a scenario better than Stanford and Cal both packing their bags.
A Pac-3 is better than a Pac-2, even though it’s not as good as a Pac-4.
AAC
The AAC’s recent overtures to the Pac-4 schools now take on added meaning. If the ACC takes Stanford and Cal, that leaves Oregon State and Washington State to decide where to go. The AAC could offer something more than what the Mountain West has. If the Big Ten takes Stanford but not Cal, maybe the Golden Bears could join Wazzu and Oregon State in making a move to the AAC.
We’re not predicting that, but the AAC has given the non-Stanford Pac-4 members something more to think about if the Big Ten and ACC say no.
