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Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Tuesday

9 min read
Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Tuesday

ESPN’s fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN’s proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Tuesday, March 7 are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.

What you need to know for Tuesday’s games

The New York Knicks and elite offense haven’t been synonymous since the heart of Carmelo Anthony’s prime in Madison Square Garden. This season, however, the team ranks sixth overall in offensive rating and second in offensive efficiency over the past month. The roster is also producing some serious fantasy values.

Third-year guard Immanuel Quickley just posted a career-best outing against the Boston Celtics over the weekend and now has at least 21 points in three of his past four games. Earning the trust of coach Tom Thibodeau often equates to big minutes, as we’re seeing with Quickley. The emergent playmaker is available in free agency in 80% of ESPN leagues while poised to pounce on a Charlotte Hornets defense that struggles to contain at the point-of-attack.

Quickley joins Tyus Jones of the Memphis Grizzlies as impact backcourt additions to fantasy rosters, as Eric Moody details below. It’s difficult to find dimes on the waiver wire this late into the season, so Jones is particularly valuable in a plus matchup with the Lakers.

Tuesday’s seven-game slate includes an impressive eight players projected for at least 45 DraftKings points via my model, so finding complementary players in DFS and redraft competition could prove critical. The likes of New York’s Mitchell Robinson, the Grizzlies’ Xavier Tillman and even Utah’s Kris Dunn all surface as names to watch ahead of a busy night.

— Jim McCormick

Breaking down Tuesday’s slate

7 p.m. ET, Amway Center, Orlando, Florida

Records (Against the Spread)
Bucks: 46-18 (35-24-5)
Magic: 27-38 (35-28-2)

Line: Bucks (-7)
BPI Projection: Bucks (126.4-120.8)
Money Line: Bucks (-285), Magic (+228)
BPI Projected winner: Bucks (69.2%)
Total: 233.5 points BPI Projected Total: 247.2 points

Injury Report:
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo, (GTD – Knee); Jrue Holiday, (GTD – Neck); Wesley Matthews, (OUT – Calf)
Magic: Gary Harris, (GTD – Hip); Wendell Carter Jr., (GTD – Hip); Admiral Schofield, (OUT – Concussion); Jonathan Isaac, (OUT – Thigh)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo to get a triple double (+762). The league removed a rebound at the end of Antetokounmpo’s last game, but he will surely be out for statistical revenge against the lowly Magic. Antetokounmpo delivered a 31-7-6 line against the Magic last week and should be more motivated on Tuesday. The safer pick may be taking him to go over 31.5 points, but I am taking a chance on the bigger performance. — Eric Karabell

Trend: Styles make fights and this fight could favor the home team. Under tickets are 21-10 this season when the Bucks are on the road and unders have come through in nine of the Magic’s past 12 games. If we are buying the scoring to be below expectation, then the lean is toward Orlando to cover (20-12-1 ATS when a game goes under the total). Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 16-12-4 ATS when the under hits. — Soppe

Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons
7 p.m. ET, Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, Michigan

Records (Against the Spread)
Wizards: 30-34 (30-32-2)
Pistons: 15-50 (29-35-1)

Line: Wizards (-8)
BPI Projection: Wizards (131.6 – 123.7)
Money Line: Wizards (-335), Pistons (+260)
BPI Projected winner: Wizards (76.4%)
Total: 224 points BPI Projected Total: 255.3 points

Injury Report:
Wizards: Kyle Kuzma, (GTD – Knee); Monte Morris, (GTD – Back)
Pistons: Bojan Bogdanovic, (GTD – Achilles); Hamidou Diallo, (GTD – Ankle); Isaiah Stewart, (GTD – Hip); Jalen Duren, (GTD – Ankle); Killian Hayes, (GTD – Hand); Rodney McGruder, (GTD – Ankle); Cade Cunningham, (OUT – Lower Leg)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks
7:30 p.m. ET, Madison Square Garden, Manhattan, New York

Records (Against the Spread)
Hornets: 20-46 (28-36-2)
Knicks: 39-27 (38-27-1)

Line: Knicks (-10)
BPI Projection: Knicks (129.8 – 114.9)
Money Line: Knicks (-480), Hornets (+360)
BPI Projected winner: Knicks (91.7%)
Total: 225.5 points BPI Projected Total: 244.7 points

Injury Report:
Hornets: Cody Martin, (GTD – Knee); LaMelo Ball, (OUT – Ankle)
Knicks: DaQuan Jeffries, (GTD – Calf); Jalen Brunson, (GTD – Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Dennis Smith Jr. (rostered in 21.1% of ESPN leagues) Smith Jr. has contributed to multiple statistical areas for fantasy managers, scoring 28 or more fantasy points in three consecutive games. Smith Jr. should continue to get ample minutes with LaMelo Ball out for the rest of the season. — Eric Moody

Best bet: Mark Williams over 8.5 rebounds and +196 double-double. Williams has thrived as the Hornets’ starting center after Mason Plumlee was traded. He has tallied four double-doubles over his past five contests and averaged a double-double in his 10 starts this season. — Eric Karabell

Best bet: Mitchell Robinson over 19.5 points + rebounds. The Hornets have allowed the second most points and most rebounds per game to centers this season. Robinson has surpassed 19.5 points and rebounds in five of his past six games. — Eric Moody

Philadelphia 76ers at Minnesota Timberwolves
7:30 p.m. ET, Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota

Records (Against the Spread)
76ers: 42-22 (35-28-1)
Timberwolves: 34-32 (32-34-0)

Line: Timberwolves (-2)
BPI Projection: 76ers (128.3 – 128.1)
Money Line: Timberwolves (-130), 76ers (+110)
BPI Projected winner: 76ers (50.7%)
Total: 229.5 points BPI Projected Total: 256.4 points

Injury Report:
76ers: P.J. Tucker, (GTD – Back); Tobias Harris, (GTD – Calf)
Timberwolves: Austin Rivers, (GTD – Neck); Jaylen Nowell, (OUT – Knee); Karl-Anthony Towns, (OUT – Calf)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Jalen McDaniels (rostered in 4.8% of ESPN leagues) McDaniels is in a great spot to play more minutes as the 76ers are on second half of a back-to-back Tuesday night. McDaniels has averaged 14.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists per 40 minutes this season. — Eric Moody

Trend: Under tickets have cashed in seven of Minnesota’s past nine home games and are 10-3 when the Wolves are a home underdog. All trends seem to be pointing toward an under play here, so it is worth noting that the 76ers are much more successful when the game goes over the total (23-13 ATS) than when it goes under (14-13 ATS). The Wolves are 10-3 ATS as a home ‘dog this season and are in a position to extend that impressive run against a Philadelphia team that is playing their third back-to-back since Valentine’s Day. –Kyle Soppe

Brooklyn Nets at Houston Rockets
8 p.m. ET, Toyota Center, Houston, Texas

Records (Against the Spread)
Nets: 36-28 (34-30-0)
Rockets: 15-49 (24-37-3)

Line: Nets (-6)
BPI Projection: Nets (127.9 – 121.9)
Money Line: Nets (-250), Rockets (+205)
BPI Projected winner: Nets (70.6%)
Total: 231 points BPI Projected Total: 249.8 points

Injury Report:
Nets: Ben Simmons, (OUT – Knee)
Rockets: None reported
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Trend: Not one, not two, but eight straight Houston games have seen the favored team cover the number. The Nets enter this game coming off of consecutive wins, something they didn’t do in all of February and if you’re looking to bet the total, overs are 6-3-1 in Brooklyn’s past 10 road games.– Soppe

Golden State Warriors at Oklahoma City Thunder
8 p.m. ET, Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma

Records (Against the Spread)
Warriors: 34-31 (31-33-1)
Thunder: 30-34 (39-24-1)

Line: Warriors (-4)
BPI Projection: Warriors (130.8 – 130.6)
Money Line: Warriors (-190), Thunder (+158)
BPI Projected winner: Warriors (50.6%)
Total: 242.5 points BPI Projected Total: 261.4 points

Injury Report:
Warriors: Andre Iguodala, (GTD – Hip); Andrew Wiggins, (GTD – Personal); Draymond Green, (GTD – Hand); Gary Payton II, (OUT – Abdomen); Ryan Rollins, (OUT – Foot)
Thunder: Jalen Williams, (GTD – Wrist); Aleksej Pokusevski, (OUT – Lower Leg); Chet Holmgren, (OUT – Foot); Kenrich Williams, (OUT – Wrist)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 42.5 points + assists + rebounds. Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off of 38-point, four-assist and seven-rebound performance against the Jazz on Sunday. Tuesday’s matchup against the Warriors has the highest expected total on the slate which means Gilgeous-Alexander should be busy. He has averaged 31.1 PPG, 5.7 APG, and 4.8 RPG this season. — Eric Moody

Trend: The Thunder wrap up a six-game homestand tonight against the Warriors and they are in a good spot to send their loyal fans home happy. Overs are 18-9-1 since New Years in Oklahoma City games and the Warriors are just 7-15 ATS when over tickets cash on the road. — Soppe

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
8:30 p.m. ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas, Texas

Records (Against the Spread)
Jazz: 31-34 (34-31-0)
Mavericks: 33-32 (23-39-3)

Line: Mavericks (-9)
BPI Projection: Mavericks (133.9 – 125.7)
Money Line: Mavericks (-400), Jazz (+310)
BPI Projected winner: Mavericks (77.5%)
Total: 236.0 points BPI Projected Total: 259.6 points

Injury Report:
Jazz: Collin Sexton, (OUT – Hamstring)
Mavericks: Maxi Kleber, (GTD – Hamstring)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Best bet: Kyrie Irving over 36.5 points + assists + rebounds. Irving has exceeded 36.5 PAR in three of his past four games. He has averaged 27 PPG, 6.8 PPG, and 4.9 RPG since being traded to the Mavericks last month. Dallas faces a Jazz team that ranks 24th in points allowed per 100 possessions and allows the third most PPG to point guards. Irving is well positioned to deliver a great performance. — Eric Moody

Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers
10 p.m. ET, Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles, California

Records (Against the Spread)
Grizzlies: 38-25 (30-30-3)
Lakers: 31-34 (30-33-2)

Line: Lakers (-1)
BPI Projection: Grizzlies (126.0 – 123.6)
Money Line: Lakers (-120), Grizzlies (+100)
BPI Projected winner: Grizzlies (58.4%)
Total: 226 points BPI Projected Total: 249.6 points

Injury Report:
Grizzlies: Brandon Clarke, (OUT – Achilles); Jake LaRavia, (GTD – Back); Ja Morant, (OUT – Suspension); Steven Adams, (OUT – Knee); Vince Williams Jr., (OUT – Shoulder)
Lakers: Anthony Davis, (GTD – Foot); D’Angelo Russell, (GTD – Ankle); Mo Bamba, (OUT – Ankle); LeBron James, (OUT – Foot)
Note: BPI numbers factor players who are ruled out but assumes GTD players will play

Fantasy streamer: Tyus Jones (rostered in 17.9% of ESPN leagues) Jones is firmly on the streaming radar as the Grizzlies move forward without Ja Morant. He scored 25 points, grabbed three rebounds, handed out 12 assists and had five steals against the Clippers on Sunday. Jones’ success should continue on Tuesday night against a Lakers team that ranks 19th in points allowed per 100 possessions. — Eric Moody

Fantasy streamer: Xavier Tillman (rostered in 6% of ESPN leagues) Tillman has started 11 of the past 12 games and delivered solid numbers (10 PPG, 7 RPG, 59% FG). Tillman boasts six consecutive games with at least 20 fantasy points, including one outing with 44 of them, which coincidentally came against tonight’s foe, the Lakers. — Eric Karabell

Fantasy streamer: Troy Brown Jr. (rostered in 1.1% of ESPN leagues) Brown Jr. put together a superb three game stretch for a Lakers team trying to replace LeBron James. He has scored 30 or more fantasy points in three straight games. — Eric Moody

Best bet: Anthony Davis over 42.5 points + rebounds. Davis should continue to carry the load for the Lakers while LeBron James is out. Davis has surpassed 42.5 points and rebounds in his past three games, a trend that should continue against the Grizzlies. — Eric Moody

Trend: Do we have a buy spot for the Grizzlies even with Ja Morant out? Unders are 9-3 in the Lakers’ past 12 home games and 15-4 in Grizzlies’ past 19 games overall. Los Angeles has been profitable to fade in those lower scoring spots (13-18-1 ATS), so give the road team a look in this game that will be lacking the star power that we had hoped for when we first saw this game on the schedule. — Soppe

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